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US Gross National Debt Jumps by $1.2 Trillion in Fiscal 2019, to $22.7 Trillion, Hits 106.5% of GDP

2019財年,美國國債總額躍升了1.2萬億美元,達到22.7萬億美元,占國內生產總值的106.5%

But what happens if there’s actually a recession?

但是如果真的出現衰退會發生什么呢?

The US gross national debt jumped by $110 billion on the last two business days of Fiscal Year 2019, and by a breath-taking $1.2 trillion during the entire fiscal year, after having already jumped by $1.27 trillion in Fiscal 2018, the Treasury Department reported today. This ballooned the US gross national debt to a vertigo-inducing $22.72 trillion.

今天發布的美國財政部報告顯示,在2019財年的最后兩個工作日里,美國國債總額躍升了1100億美元,繼2018財年躍升1.27萬億美元之后,整個2019財年的國債總額又增加了1.2萬億美元,嘆為觀止啊。這使得美國國債總額飆升至令人眩暈的22.72萬億美元。

These beautiful trillions whipping by are a joy to behold: so much action in so little time. The flat spots in the chart below are the results of the debt-ceiling charade in Congress. When the debt ceiling is lifted, the debt spikes back to trend, and nothing changed:

看著這漂亮的數十萬億美元被鞭打也是一種享受啊:在如此短的時間內有如此多的行動。下圖中的平點就是國會債務上限猜謎游戲的結果。當債務上限被解除時,債務又會回到增長趨勢,沒有任何變化:



During Fiscal 2019, the gross national debt increased by 5.6% and now amounts to 106.5% of current-dollar GDP, up from 105.4% at the end of Fiscal 2018.

在2019財年,國債總額增加了5.6%,現在達到了當前美元國內生產總值的106.5%,高于2018財年年底的105.4%。

The thing to remember here is that this isn’t the Great Recession or the Financial Crisis, when over 10 million people lost their jobs and credit froze up and companies went bankrupt and tax revenues plunged while outlays soared to pay for unemployment insurance and the like. This isn’t even the Collapse of Everything, but the longest expansion of the economy in US history.

這里要記住的是,這不是大衰退或金融危機,不然會發生超過1000萬人失業、信貸被凍結、公司破產、稅收收入驟降,而用于支付失業保險等的支出飆升。這甚至也不是什么都崩潰,而是美國歷史上最長的經濟擴張。

Over the last four quarters, the US economy as measured by nominal GDP (not adjusted for inflation) grew by 4.0%. Over the same period, the US gross national debt grew by 5.6% (not adjusted for inflation).

在過去的四個季度里,以名義國內生產總值衡量的美國經濟(未考慮通脹因素)增長了4.0%。同期,美國國債總額增長了5.6%(未考慮通脹因素)。



But no problem, it’s just some trillions.

但沒問題,只是幾萬億而已。

The thing is, I get to write these articles once a year, every year, and have been for years, because it’s the same fiasco every year, all over again, only now it’s a little bigger.

問題是,我每年都會寫一次這類的文章,而且已經寫了很多年了,因為每年都是同樣的慘敗,一遍又一遍,只是現在債務規模真的有點大了。

From Fiscal 2012, after the Great Recession was declared over and done with, through Fiscal 2016, the gross national debt increased on average by $947 billion per year. In Fiscal 2018 and Fiscal 2019, the gross national debt increased on average by $1.23 trillion per year.

從2012財年開始,在宣告大衰退結束后,到2016財年,國債總額平均每年增加9470億美元。在2018財年和2019財年,國債總額平均每年增加1.23萬億美元。

Fed Chair Jerome Powell keeps saying that the US is on an “unsustainable fiscal path,” which is fine and dandy, but every time he says this, he sounds like a fossil that is completely out of touch with reality in Congress where all this got passed. “Sustain” for these folks in Congress means sustaining their campaign funds and sustaining them through the next election.

美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾一直在說,美國正走在“不可持續的財政道路”上,這條路很好,也很漂亮,但每次他這么說,聽起來就像一塊化石一樣,完全脫離了現實,而國會又每次都使之獲得通過。對于國會中的那些人來說,“支持”就意味著支持他們的競選資金,并在下次選舉中繼續支持他們。